AGORA

AGORA
Marketplace of Ideas

Friday, July 9, 2010

State of the Globe

                                                                           Global Economic Pulse

              As recently as 2007, the global economy grew 5.2 percent and celestial choirs were singing Kumbayah. At last, a golden era could be seen in the hazy distance. To some, it was a most awaited sign of prosperity, stability, and constant growth. According to some economists, that pattern was not at all sporadic. That rate of growth was consistent over a few years, an upward mobility caused by emerging markets such as China with an 11 percent growth, India 9 percent, Russia 8 percent, and Brazil 7 percent, which lead to serious attitudinal changes over all four corners of the Globe. In addition, both the Middle East and Africa saw a boom in economic developments, which contributed to a very strong third quarter in 2006.
That atmosphere, according to Economywatch.com, created a host of predictions and theories by experts.  As they looked into their crystal balls, they predicted years of unfettered growth. Those predictions were based on the idea that the economic progress of the fore-mentioned giants, along with few others, would provide a much-needed counterbalance to stagnancy or slow growth elsewhere in the world. Much to their surprise however, the global economy had turned into an airliner deprived of all of its engines at cruising altitude. The nosedive that followed was comparable to that of the great depression of the 1930s. As a result, worries spread quicker than California wildfires and the world was painfully witnessing its Armageddon in slow motion: capitalist ideals were being tested and it looked as if they would not withstand the test of times.
Naturally, reactive governments around the world dispatched all of their emergency response teams to the financial scene in hope of containment; they had to prevent what was commonly referred to as “the end of the world.” They could not allow that airplane to hit the ground at such an unprecedented velocity. Hence, the term bailout got mainstreamed and major corporations scrambled for lifelines. Later though, when it became evident that it was another sad case of highway robbery by corporate capitalists, everyone was familiar with the classic ending that would follow: tons of ordinary folks would lose everything while also picking up the bill of incompetence, immorality, and insatiable greed.  The June 2010 report of the Congressional Oversight Committee (COC) on the AIG bailout found here attested to this rationale. It revealed that at least here in the US, taxpayers’ wallet was the only target of the government, $182 billion worth. The report specifically indicated that there were other options that would be less costly to the citizens, but government financial gurus ignored them.
            Today however, if you believe some “experts,” the economic calamity is in the world’s rearview mirror and everyone should breathe a huge sigh of relief while navigating through the debris. One of their biggest indicators has been the recently revised GDP for the year-ending quarter of 2009. The US saw a 5.9 percent growth, one that is met with suspicions by investors. Meanwhile, other experts are describing the current state of the world economy as a landmine highlighting investor’s insecurity, nervousness, and sporadic reactivity. Still, some insist that we have turned the corner and that slowly but surely the world is on its way to recovery.
            In this September 2009 report, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) hinted at the stabilization of global economic conditions. The report stated that major corrections have been made in bond spread, credit markets, share prices, currency swap index, business inventories, world trade volumes, export trade, and housing markets. It specifically pointed out that, “Industrial production is on the increase in major emerging countries, a trend which shows that the current crisis deviates from the Great Depression in the 1930s.”
            All of this probably means nothing to an ordinary guy such as myself, but these reports seem to be indicating that the world economy, although far from a full recovery, may have left the ICU, a hopeful sign that could mean that I will probably have a job again in the near future to regain some sanity. The OECD report also mentioned that the poorest countries would be swimming in the Red Sea for the foreseeable future. They were hit the hardest by the teeth of Armageddon and did not have the appropriate economic structure in place, as did the major economies of the globe. This translates to more days scanning the debris for survival for the regressing economies.
            Rapadoo,

Sources: Economicwatch.com, the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Congressional Oversight Committee (COC), and Money Morning. 

No comments:

Post a Comment